GLOBAL ENERGY SECURITY:TERRA WATTS Of SOLAR And WIND ENERGY

"The amount of sunshine energy that hits the surface of the Earth every minute is greater than the total amount of energy that the world's human population consumes in a year!"(Home Power Magazine)

                                  "Comparing finite and renewable planetary energy reserves (Terawatt‐years). Total recoverable reserves are shown for the finite resources. Yearly potential is shown for the renewables." (source: Perez & Perez, 2009a)

With such  huge potential  and wide distribution of renewable energy, so much so that it is almost impossible to find a nation or a place on this globe whose  requirements cannot be met by these sources, it is surprising that human minds are still looking in different directions for their energy needs and energy security. What is their compulsion to wait for the day when all finite energy resources will dry out particularly when wisdom desires that we must save on Carbon as it is precious and must be saved for future generations. The opinion of Edison on the nature's inexhaustible sources has been reproduced  to put the discussion on renewable vs finite energy sources in the right perspective.

Some of the reasons for renewable energy  not being given its rightful place are

• Of no use as a weapon of war  

• Any change from the long established practices and technologies are resisted by cartels of nations,industries and even the technocrat lobbies for reasons of self interest and fear of losing on their monopolies and importance. The nuclear energy nations and their oil and nuclear industry cartels will like to delay the solar and wind energy technologies to keep milking their huge investments in oilfields, technologies and industrial base.

INDIAN ECONOMY- On The THRESHOLD Of BREAKTHROUGH Or BREAKDOWN

Indian GDP growth has certainly slowed down to sub 7% from the highs of 8.5 plus achieved during the last couple of years. The country is bogged down by high inflation, high current account deficit, high fiscal deficit, policy paralysis, rampant corruption, and gross mismanagement / bad governance. The result is that the country is on the cross roads and the question " Is Indian economy on the threshold of  break through or breakdown ?" is paramount on the minds of all those who are well wishers of the country.

Indian government appears to be in a bind over all reforms whether economic, financial, judicial or administrative either because of political compulsions of coalition rule ( The ruling polity will like the country to believe that ) or lack of will, sincerity and motivation. The fiscal health of the country has been left totally to the Reserve Bank of India ( RBI ) and the matters related to correct administration to the judiciary.The ruling polity in the states and centre is unabashedly involved in bleeding the country to slow death through actions either to score brownie points over each other or raising catchy slogans to fool the public at large for garnering votes and creating vote banks for themselves. None of the actions of these rulers is going to have any significant effect on the economic growth or towards ending the miseries and sufferings of common man of India.

Granted for a moment that administrative reforms and economic reforms are being sacrificed on the altar of coalition politics. The ruling polity has to get out of the rut of thinking that  RBI actions are the sole answer to controlling inflation, for the only action available with the RBI i.e. controlling various banking rates is contradictory to achieving higher growth.The government has to strive hard to take small out of the box measures to improve the fiscal health of the country by reducing current account deficit and fiscal account deficit which will be value additive to RBI efforts. Nation's priority should hinge on :

• Measures to increase the production and availability of all food articles.
• Highest priority to road infrastructure in terms of new additions and timely high quality maintenance  and repair which can make a multi faceted contribution to fiscal health of the country in a very big way.Smooth passage of traffic in all towns, cities and metros and national and state highways can be a real game changer for the fiscal health of the country.

1. Reduction of about 30%  in oil consumption thus saving Rs1.5 lakh crores annually out of a total oil import bill of about Rs5.0 lakh crores.
2. Reduction of  Rs30000 crores in the annual oil subsidy bill of about 1.0 lakh crore.
3. Savings on repair and maintenance roads and government vehicles about 90 % of the budgetary allocations.

• Austerity measures on the government spending
• Power Generation and management : Out of a total installed capacity of 2,00,000 MW about 80000 MW are being produced currently and 57000 MW are available to the consumers. Electricity distribution network in India is inefficient compared to other networks in the world. India's network losses exceeded 32% in 2010, compared to world average of less than 15%. Loss reduction technologies, if adopted in India, can add about 30000 MW of electrical power, while simultaneously reducing electricity cost and carbon footprint pollution. The total equivalent revenue  loss for 40000 MW ( 20000 MW of distribution network inefficiency + 20000 MW of Generation inefficiency ) is of the order of Rs 1,44000 lakh crore @ Rs 4/kwh assuming 24 hrs availability of this additional power component. Imagine what it can do to the fiscal health of the country,its contribution to production and improving general life not withstanding.

In the light of this an all out attack on what has been highlighted above is not asking for moon from the ruling polity of India particularly when their weak spots like corruption, subsidies, doles, freebies etc have been left untouched in this route to ensure that Indian economy is on the threshold of breakthrough rather than breakdown. Hopefully Indian government will

• Ensure that no power generation facility lies idle for want of coal or transmission grid.
• Ensure to realise compounded potential of power generation efficiency and power transmission and distribution efficiency in making India prosperous which is tremendous and cannot be allowed to fizzle out because of the insincerity, mismanagement, inefficiency and technical incompetence of polity, executive and engineering community of the country.

INDIAN GROWTH STORY: A REALISTIC PICTURE

Everybody on this globe recognises the opportunity provided by the global economic situation and outlook, Indian demography, Indian economy size, availability of large competent technical and managerial human resource along with  technical and engineering competence to catapult Indian nation to the status of a global economic superpower.The Indian GDP stands at 1.7 million million dollars which is about 1/9th of US GDP whereas per capita is about 1360 dollars which is a dismal 3% of the US per capita. Even if India manages to  grow to an economy as big as that of present USA, per capita wise it will only be comparable to today's per capita of East European countries. 
Growth rate vs GDP increase: Indian GDP can become 9 times its present value if it keeps on growing continuously at 10% for the next 23 years. The same period increases to 32 years with a drop of 3% in the annual growth rate. 
In the light of these facts, the following need to be understood and addressed by India's planners and polity otherwise the Indian dream of becoming a world leader will perish sooner than later.

• Will this opportunity window be available to the country for such a long a period.
• Will developed nations continue to pass on low level manufacturing hubs to India as they did for Singapore, Taiwan, Malaysia, South Korea and lately China or their experiences with a big economy with potential to become an economic superpower will make them hesitant to make use of cheaper manufacturing base of India with potential similar to that of China. After all developed countries also wish to grow richer rather than stagnating at present levels of prosperity.
• Will India grow rich before getting old or grow old before getting rich.
• Does India expect that it will be offered status of an economic superpower on a platter.The offerings will come only in areas which give value addition to the earnings of the developed world in short term as well as help maintain their technology leadership in the longer run.

Indian polity and planners have to work seriously to extend this opportunity window much beyond the realms of global economic situation and outlook through policy action on administrative, judicial, electoral and economic reforms to mitigate corruption, doing away with subsidies, provide good governance and some out of the box thinking for avoiding getting old before getting rich, become technology leaders in renewable energy fields rather than live on bought and borrowed technologies as and when they are offered at whatever prices along with attached strings.Simultaneously Indian polity and planners should aim to increase the tooth to tail ratio of annual budgets ( Ratio of  funds devoted to GDP growth to funds devoted to all government expenditure ) at all levels in states and centre within the applicable constraints of fiscal deficit and inflation.

Agni V Successful Launch by India

AGNI V LAUNCH ( April 19, 2012 )

ENERGY SECURITY : INDIAN SOLUTION

Energy security is the key concern with all nations whether developed, developing or under developed in the light of the fact because of following.

• Energy needs are growing day by day.
• Amongst conventional energy sources viz Hydro potential is limited all over  world though it is an absolutely clean source of energy. Fossil Fuels and Nuclear Energy have a limited availability, may be for another five to six decades and have major associated problems.( Environmental in case of fossil fuel based energy and devastating, catastrophic long persisting accident risks in case of nuclear energy)

It is therefore mandatory for the mankind to seek energy security from renewable sources like hydro, solar, wind, tides and geothermal which are clean and almost eternal. Since every nation is uniquely placed with respect to availability of these sources on its soil, energy security solution will also be different for each nation and will be country centric. India cannot blindly follow what US, Germany, Japan and others are doing. It has to devise its own strategy for adopting the right mix of various renewable energies depending on their availabilities region wise.

• For north India comprising of Indo Gangetic plain and covering Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal, Punjab, Haryana, Uttar  Pradesh,  Uttrakhand,  Bihar,  Bengal etc. energy security  solution  with a mix of hydro, solar and wind power is within the realm of possibility for per capita power consumption equal to that of advanced western nations.
• For North East the solution lies totally in the use of hydro electric potential of the region.
• Coastal India comprising of Orissa, Andhra, Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Karnataka, Goa etc. can rely totally on hydro and wind energy for energy security solution.
• Central India along with Rajsthan and Gujerat should harness all their solar and wind energy potential for an eternal solution to their energy security.

National Grid

Since the transmission and distribution losses of 35-40% are a big drain on power production and cost an out of the box solution requiring minimal transmission will be an enormous asset in building an energy security solution. This is possible only through having small power production centres. Incidentally such requirements can easily be met with use of on site solar and wind power generation without compromising on the capital cost, production cost or efficiency of power generation in any way.The grid application can be limited to major hydroelectric power sources and Thar Desert solar power ultra ultra mega power generation hub for the use of railways and big cities which already have and are likely to have metro rail in future..

ENERGY SECURITY IN INDIA : SOLAR AND WIND POWER

Whenever one talks of solar and wind energy options for achieving energy security, a lot of fuss is created over the capital cost and power generation cost of these alternates. It is always implied that huge power producing hubs using these energy sources will be part of a large grid. For a meaningful comparison solar and wind energy has to be evaluated on the basis of a standalone onsite concept applied on a village level which is their forte. This concept does away with the requirements of a grid. 

By way of example let us take a village of about 1000 households with a population of 5000. For a per capita consumption of 2000 kwh annually purely for domestic usage, 10000000 kwh or 10000mwh are required which translates into a power generation requirement of less than 1mw assuming constant loads for 24 hours all 365 days of a year. Keeping in view the vagaries of demand within 24 hours of a day, 5mw generator of wind and solar power each will more than suffice for all kind of requirements.This will require a land area of about 50 acres which every village has in the form of SHAMLAT land ( A piece of land owned by a village collectively for common use of the village ).

• The beauty of solar and wind power generators is that the power generation cost of 1mw is the same as that of 10mw or more in the same way as the traction cost of a vehicle remains the same whether we have one vehicle or more. The scale of production of vehicles lowers the cost of vehicle but cost of producing 1BHP of traction power remains the same.The scale of production will reduce the cost of solar panels or wind turbines but will not effect the cost of energy production.
• Solar and wind power when used onsite standalone mode does away with the capital cost requirements of a grid as also the major amount of 35-40% transmission and distribution losses and the overall cost becomes close to all kinds of power generators in use.

Besides being an attractive power generation option because of versatility in terms of vagaries of on site requirements depending upon size of households conglomerate, ability to be upgraded with annual  demand  increases and incurring costs as per the availability of funds keeping smallest village as a viable unit, solar and wind power option offers following additional advantages of far reaching importance to the country.

• As there is no requirement of hauling of fuels from mines to generation sites,  no additional load on road and rail transport infrastructure for production of power.
• No additions to global warming
• The nation will be free from any catastrophe through ever lingering possibility of nuclear plant accidents.
• No chance of blackmail by fuel suppliers.

New industrial hubs and Special Economic Zones can also meet their power requirements through a combination of solar, wind and emergency switch-over diesel based power. An integrated corridor of land all round will accommodate a ring road, ring railway for to and fro logistics requirements of men and material and solar panels and wind turbines for electricity generation.

INDIA CALLING For NATIONALISTIC POLITY

Infrastructure development without doubt is the next gen growth engine of Indian economy and the thrust being provided by Indian planners to this sector is understandable. A lot of advantages that accrue as a result of this thrust lose their sheen because of the rampant corruption during development and maintenance. Worst still are the effects of Indian malaise of not bothering about the state of assets once created and the apathy of the polity, executive and every one towards this all important aspect of nation building.
Per capita availability of vehicles is one of the many indexes of prosperity of any nation. It is really nice to learn that India is currently producing 2 million plus of motor cars and something like 5 million 2 wheelers annually. But at the same time one shudders to think about the scene on the Indian roads in 2020 and beyond particularly in the light of lack of planning concerns on the part of rulers of the country. Apart from traffic jams and inconvenience to the road users which many a times is talked about in the country, the most crucial thing, that is,

• the loss to national exchequer in terms of additional heavy expenditure on oil imports and 
• the national loss in terms of break down, wear and tear and maintenance of individual vehicles ( private or state owned ) seems to be nobody's concern, not even of our so called nationalistic polity.

It is a widely accepted fact that prosperity will come as a result of and will result in 50% of the population in urban conglomerates. At present more than 80% of the vehicles are are plying on the roads of top 30 big cities of the country wherein travelling 1 Km can take even more than five minutes because of congestion and chaos coupled with terrible state of roads. Most of the highways are also in bad shape for more than four months of the year.
Clearly India is wasting about 50% of its fuel because of lack of proper infrastructure and the maintenance level of whatever it has. The fuel import bill of Rs 4.00 lakh crores which is likely to escalate to more than Rs20 lakh crores by 2020 by most conservative estimates as a result of exploding demands of personal vehicles, public transport and logistics requirements of a growing economy of 1 billion Plus people.
If only we have a set of people at the top who think in terms of country and what is best for the country rather than showing insensitivity to all that is good for the country and its assets whether with the government or with individual citizens, a lot can be achieved for catapulting the growth, mitigation of poverty, social and socio-economic empowerment etc. etc. through massive savings in oil imports and accompanying subsidies.