Energy Security - Some Guiding Principles

Every nation on this globe is clamouring to find a solution to the problem of energy security and there cannot be a universal solution for every country. The solution has to be country specific depending upon the availability of energy source reserves and its aspirations of becoming only prosperous or catapulting itself to a new economic superpower.

• Energy sources such as coal, oil, gas, uranium, solar energy, wind and hydroelectric potential etc. etc. and a solution has to be based on the right kind of mix of these energies. A country that does not have abundant coal or oil reserves or Uranium fuel cannot and should not base its energy security around power from these as it will always be exposed to economic and political blackmail.
• Every country must aim at making use of its own technology strengths in the first place and look for solutions which will have least dependence on the technology provider for plant operation, repair, maintenance, fuel replacements and ultimately replacement capacities.
• No environmental hazard, no catastrophical accident hazard, no extraordinary security provisions against theft, terrorist attack and blackmail, no major issues like waste disposal and dismantling of old plants.
• The source reservoir should preferably be unlimited and there for all times to come.

Arab world has gained prosperity but is nowhere near to the status of an economic superpower. At best it can be said to be the super consumer of technology products of western world and will keep on sustaining the superpower status of these countries. The next wave of developmental economic activity on this globe is likely to take place in poor African and Asian countries who will realise their dreams on the strength of being rich in fuel and other natural resources. These countries are likely to be denied nuclear power and coal based power additions are likely to be curtailed because of carbon emissions. So the countries strong in power technologies from all renewable energy sources are going to gain tremendously.

Indian Energy security - the next gen growth engine

With an enormous requirement of about 6-7 lakh MW of additional power in the next about 2 decades to cater for the country's energy security, the Indian energy security could easily be the next gen growth engine and the route adopted to realise this security could lead to the status of economic super power provided the polity and the government take nationalistic decisions without getting cowed down by the economic and political power of the advanced western countries. In this highly competitive world no country is a well wisher of any other country. Every body is looking after its own economic benefit first, the other may gain as a by product. India and for that matter no country that has a potential of jeopardising the economic super power status of advanced countries in any field of economic activity has to be doubly careful for the direct and indirect strings attached, visible or hidden to any  help that is being promised. Giving technologies to smaller countries like Singapore, Taiwan, South Korea, Thailand etc. that too in inconsequential fields of garment, apparel, shoe making industry, home appliances, computer hardware,electronics and auto mobile ancillaries to save on their own manufacturing costs. The small population of these countries could be easily elevated beyond the poverty levels and  see some benefits of industrialisation and prosperity accruing to them.

We have been witness to the horrendous effects of dependence and reliance on the technology and consumable resources in all walks of life, energy and power generation being no exceptions. We have seen the effect of cartelisation by the oil producers who have made full use of increased global demand by increasing the prices of oil many many folds. In the last decade India tried to depend on imported coal for its power generation requirements and coal prices have been doubled up by the exporting countries without even resorting to any cartelisation. Imagine what will happen if these countries also form an OPEC (Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries) like body to squeeze maximum benefits out of their natural resources.Why is India forgetting its own old experiences of nuclear power plants. India had sunk in a lot of money in nuclear power plants during seventies and eighties of twentieth century but could never run them efficiently ( so much so even today we are running them at 50% of the installed capacity ) because of consumable and critical technology denials by the same countries who are now claiming to be willing to help India out with nuclear power stations. What are the safeguards against the same story not being repeated again either through denial or asking for exorbitant prices for consumables and critical components. Incidentally India is even now being denied  research tools that are available with some of their own universities even. In such a backdrop Is Nuclear Power Option a Wise Option or A Fraud on the Nation .In any case Indian Energy Security, through nuclear power route is neither the next gen growth engine nor the means to attain economic super power status for the country. It is definitely the route to maintaining the economic super power status of western world by letting them fleece an aspiring India through sale of defunct and obsolete technology which is out of sync with realities of twenty first century and in the process building up their strengths in the various fields of renewable energy to harness the economic prowess of eternal in situ available energies.In fact they want to make best use of the huge opportunity that exists in an energy starved nation of 1 billion plus. Can Indian politicians and government make full use of this colossus opportunity of becoming global leaders and an economic super power knocking at their doors and not waste it in raising the prosperity level of its masses by a notch or two.

Renewable energy is the answer for all futuristic Energy security not only of India but of entire world and that is why the countries with vision like Germany, Japan etc. are bent upon phasing out nuclear power option at a rather rapid pace and adding up solar at a feverish pace..The yearly additions of renewable energy particularly of solar and wind energy are growing exponentially in spite of fossil fuel and nuclear energy cartels trying their best with powerful misinformation campaigns advocating their importance for global energy security. The reasons can be summed up as follows:

• No deleterious effects on environment and thus ability to contribute in reducing global warming in the short run and taking it back to early twentieth century level in the long run.
• In situ availability
• Eternal availability in comparison to limited availability of all fuels.
• Suitability for standalone requirements as also micro,mini and large grid systems requirements.
• Immunity against inflation and other kind of price escalations as far as energy from the source is concerned.
• No infra and logistics spends required to gain access at the power plant site as is required in case of all fuels.
• With passage of time, power produced by renewable energy sources is only going to be cheaper and better through researches in the fields of better energy conversion, hybridisation, storage etc.

It is time to leave the beaten path and catapult Indian energy security effort to renewable and renewable energy sources alone to make best use of the opportunity window provided by enormous requirements of this energy starved nation of 1 billion plus to realise the dream of energy security in a reasonable time frame.

INDIAN OIL ECONOMICS : IS IT THE ETERNAL BANE OF INDIAN ECONOMY AND INDIAN GROWTH STORY

In a country like India which relies mainly on the oil imports for meeting its needs, all aspects of oil economy should find the topmost concern and priority in country's policies, governance.India is heavily dependent on the imports of oil, in fact 80% of the country's demand is met through imports.The oil demand and requirement is  likely to grow many fold in the light of likely prosperity that will ensue with the passage of time and unless and until the government clears the mess of oil economics through radical policy changes, transparent oil pricing mechanisms and pin pointed governance. The road infrastructure must be improved for its quality, quantity and conformance to international traffic engineering principles at all levels starting with national and state level highways, urban road infrastructure and rural roads.In fact all infrastructure is the key to Indian growth story and the road sector with more than 50% weightage in infrastructure is the all important next gen growth engine of Indian Economy directly through employment and construction activity, logistic support etc. and indirectly through massive savings on oil requirements.

Oil Economy: Pricing and distortions
The Excise, VAT and other taxation accruals from the oil sector are of the order of Rs 2,35000 cr whereas the subsidy burden is to the tune of 1,85000 cr. Through the subsidy or doles to the oil companies to cater for their under recoveries, these companies manage hefty profits a major portion of which accrues to the government in the form of dividend. ( in fact government received Rs 20000 cr as dividend from these companies in the last two years ). No doubt the Indian oil economics over the years has been the goose that lays golden eggs for the government kitty, it is likely to become an eternal bane of Indian economy and Indian growth story in the light of finite nature of oil availability on our planet, the ever increasing requirements of mankind and the awareness amongst the oil producers to milk their limited resources to the maximum.
While the government can neither afford to lose its oil revenues nor pass on even partial burden to the public at large because of compulsions of dirty coalition politics and requirements of vote politics.But it surely can resort to minimizing the effects of oil economy on Indian growth story through following time tested steps guided by reductions in imports and decreasing subsidy burden to control both current account deficit and fiscal deficit.

• Cutting down Oil wastages and needless subsidies

1. Toll barriers and slow speeds : Delays at toll cost Rs 87,000 crore every year as per the survey to be released by road ministry out of which the fuel loss is a hefty Rs 60000 crores with an additional subsidy burden of about Rs 20000 crores.
2. The subsidy cost of pilferage, theft and kerosene consumption by other than the target group is of the order of  Rs 25000 crores.
3. The LPG earmarked for domestic use finds its way to all kind of commercial activity leading to a gross subsidy of Rs 50000 cr.
4.  Out of the total diesel subsidy of Rs 1.05 lakh crore, the goods vehicles account for 37.9% and agriculture sector accounts for 18.8% which is desirable. The rest consumed by taxis, cars, other private vehicles, three wheelers, power, industry, railways, defence and others should not have access to subsidised diesel. A saving of about Rs 45000 cr can be easily achieved without any major effect on inflation.                        

• Use of Biofuel Blends

A 10% blend which is used by countries like Brazil will result in a 10% decrease in oil import bill and  subsidy bill.

• Urban Transportation Infrastructure and System   

Topmost priority for an effective, efficient, fast, reliable and comfortable mass transportation system for all urban conglomerates with a population of 0.5 million and above rather than individual's own vehicle based model. The high efficiency and low cost of travel coupled with de-congestion of roads can result in massive savings in both, the oil imports and subsidies.

In fact it is time that the rulers and planners of the country understand the implications and full impact of oil economics on Indian economy, for otherwise they can neither attain the high growth trajectory being aimed at nor give a meaningful push to their social welfare programmes. Indian economy and Indian growth story will always be at the mercy of global factors and manipulations as is being witnessed presently. No body can deny the fact that if the Indian current account as well as fiscal deficit had been kept at reasonably low levels, the inflation, high interest rates, economic slow down and devaluation of rupee would not have escalated to such an extent because of global economic turmoil that has almost signalled the onset of disbelief in Indian growth story.

INDIAN CHANCE TO BECOME AN ECONOMIC SUPERPOWER

India   is  at  the  thresh  hold  of  a  huge  step forward to become one of the economic super powers of  21st century and the opportunity is there for the taking  if and only if the country's rulers and planners put their best foot forward rather than  moaning and groaning  about  the financial problems faced by world  in  general and the developed economies in particular. In fact if there were no problems in the developed economies of this globe this much talked about opportunity  window   would  not   have been available to India in spite of huge technical and management  human  resource,  an  awesome demography  advantage   coupled   with   an enormous demand for all kind of consumer goods, infrastructure, housing and healthcare needs even if one talks about extending  the benefits of development to a level of reasonably good living as per the European standards to the 1 billion plus population of the country. Add to this the need and inner desire on the part of all nations to shift over to renewable energy sources for energy security because of global environmental concerns and finite nature of all fuel based energy.

The Indian polity and planners must understand that prosperity and global leadership is something that they have to strive for and no other country of this globe will help them achieve this by jeopardising their own global leadership status.After all it is not wrong to presume that leaders of western economies shall work in the best interest of their own countries and economies and leaders of countries like India who are looking up to them for their salvation will end up with crumbs only.

Let Indian polity not wait for the improvements in global economic scene and work single-mindedly on problems that are dragging Indian growth. The two main present problems of Indian economy i.e. the inflation and rupee depreciation are both interlinked and require stringent and harsh measures on many fronts and cannot be sorted out with patchy controls by Reserve Bank of India (RBI). This has been seen in the case of efforts to rein in inflation through rate increases by RBI and the results are there for every one to see. The inflation menace has resurfaced after a small time correction and the negative effect on growth as surfaced with a big bang. Similarly, the efforts to control rupee depreciation has not lasted beyond a couple of days even. The real answer to both these problems lies in a path guided by good economics, governance and increase in productivity with politics taking a back seat for some time. If the fiscal deficit and current account deficit are managed well through austerity measures, control on imports, wise pruning of the Indian budget, corruption mitigation and management of energy resources through governance, ( India calling for nationalistic polity) the retrograde effects of policy paralysis could take the back seat.
Let the country understand that big dreams are realised through hard work,dedication and sincerity of purpose and not through mere wishful thinking and vote catching rhetoric as is being done by Indian polity at large. Otherwise the Indian dream and chance to become world leaders will end up in fiasco.It is now or never. Let us not waste this God sent opportunity.

INDIAN POLITICAL REALITIES

With no reforms on administrative, judicial, electoral as well as economic front in sight and no will to have an effective Lok Pal in the country all political parties have shown their priorities and policies of taking Indian masses for a ride. The Indian polity on the whole is collectively playing with the sentiments of people and fooling them. All parties are concerned only with not keeping the ball in their court. No body nails anyone in this game of collusion wherein they will take refuge behind political or economic agenda of their party so much so that corruption mitigation and war on corruption also has emerged as something that clashes with the political agenda of parties, religion and caste. All of them seem to be waiting only for 2014 general elections when they can manipulate maximum gain for themselves by extracting prized portfolios in cabinet, huge economic favour for their states etc. etc..

The only concern of UPA II seems to be as to how to manage the present government for another two years upto the next elections. The country and the economy can go to dogs who cares? After all it has been given a mandate to rule this country till 2014 and it is more inclined to live happily at the expense of public money without doing anything concrete or worthwhile to alleviate the miseries of the common man of the country. To stick to power it resorts to all kinds of political manipulations, succumbing to political blackmails and denying the country even the semblance of governance.

The only agenda of the government is to find out some slogan or some action that will be good enough to fool the poor hapless voter of the country to give them another term in power and to loot the country with their meaningless rhetoric, malafide intentions and governance motivated by corruption and corruption alone. In 2009 elections congress rode on the planks of  economic empowerment and inclusive growth knowing fully well that these programmes give corruption a big chance to thrive on. All those who matter in congress today have been witness to the notorious community development programme (now rechristened as inclusive growth) of  fifties , sixties and seventies of last century wherein some of their own leaders were candid enough to admit that 75% of the money designated for community development gets lost in corruption at various stages. When with about 50 years of rule in centre and various states, Congress party could not tackle the corruption and graft problem when 2 million employees and a couple of thousands of legislators then why go in for economic empowerment plank. The reason is simple enough to understand in the underlined message that we empower you to partake in national loot and you give us power to provide you with more and more of such wonderful opportunities. This time for 2014 elections UPA bosses have pinned their hopes on food security bill with no mention of any time limit or provisions of revision list of needy. It will be implemented in the same shoddy manner like old ration cards where many millionaires find their names for use of subsidies.As far as reforms are concerned which can transform the economy and condition of masses, a carrot has been shown to Indian masses through the mouthpiece of the government by saying that reforms will pick up only after 2014 when they are returned to power to enjoy life at the cost of public money.

Let the polity of the country understand that with least sincerity and willingness to do anything worthwhile for the country, country's voter is going to give fractured verdicts for national parties because it has realised that to squeeze the maximum out of union government for benefit of the states, blackmail is the only thing that works.

More hydro power to boost energy security: Report

NEW DELHI: Against the backdrop of coal shortages impacting the power sector, increasing hydro powergeneration capacity would help in strengthening India's energy security, says a report. Many hydro power projects are grappling with delays and cost overruns, mainly due to geological as well as geopolitical obstacles.

"Given India's tight domestic coal supply and increasing reliance on imported coal, hydro capacity provides the country with greater energy security...," HSBC Global Research, part of banking giant HSBC, said in a recent report on the Indian hydro power sector.

Going by estimates, hydro power makes up for little over 20% of the country's total installed capacity of more than 1,90,000 MW.

The hydro capacity addition was revised to about 8,200 MW from earlier target of 15,600 MW in the 11th Five-Year Plan (2007-12). However, the actual capacity added during that period is estimated to be around 5,400 MW.

NUCLEAR ENERGY SAFETY- A FALSE PROMISE

The developed world polity , nuclear energy cartels and technocrats' lobbies have a big motivation to fool the world because they want to earn from their huge investments in nuclear power and technology researches, nuclear power plant manufacturing techniques, nuclear fuel facilities and lastly to retain their blackmailing right to deny the fuel or spares at any time they feel like.There is no nation on this globe which does not have one or more viable alternate available for its energy security. Everyday the polity and experts of nuclear power technology sellers as well as buyers come out with statements regarding the safety of nuclear plants by killing their conscience and conveniently ignoring all facts

Ever since the  nuclear energy route for energy security has been professed and taken up, a large no of accidents have occurred in these plants but the ten major ones require special mention and deliberations. From the first day of the first nuclear power plant way back in 1956 at Windscale, England, the polity and technocrats kept on assuring the whole world that everything has been taken care of for ensuring 100% safety of nuclear power plants particularly when the extent of holocaust which could be wrought on humanity by nuclear fission were fresh in public minds after Nagasaki and Hiroshima atom bomb attacks. 

The risks of catastrophic accidents at Nuclear Power Plants

Potential Accident Consequences

The potential harmful consequences of a reactor plant eruption are truly catastrophic in magnitude. From a near full release of fission products and plutonium from just one reactor, about 200,000 square kilometers of land could have to be abandoned, due to high Gamma-radiation levels from the ground fallout, according to my analysis. (The size of West Germany is about 250,000 square kilometers, and Spain, 490,000 sq. kilometers. A like size area could have to be abandoned due alone to man-made plutonium fallout dust (Alpha-radiation) - a lung cancer hazard - following a PWR or BWR eruption, and up to one million square kilometers in the case of a nuclear explosion accident in a plutonium-fuelled fast breeder reactor, which contains much more plutonium. Several hundred thousand square kilometers could be ruined agriculturally for food growing due to long-lasting Cesium-137 and Strontium-90 fallout. There are many other forms of radiation exposure, such as radiation damage to the thyroid gland (cancer) from radioactive Iodine, and exposure of the skin to Beta-radiation, and inhalation of radioactive fission products besides plutonium dust. The combined effects are incalculable in terms of injury and impaired health to humans (and animals). The possibility of fifty million or more cancer deaths cannot be excluded.



The Irony of 100% safety

• How hollow and wrong were these claims on safety, came to light after the Three Mile Island, USA, 1979 accident and once again every body was assured of 100% safety with new revised stringent controls
• The same wrong full  assertions were repeated after The Chernobyl Disaster, USSR, 1986 and once again the humanity was fooled into believing that 100 % safety has been assured now with new , revised and stringent controls at all stages of manufacture and plant functioning.
• Nature once again reminded these touts of nuclear energy of the inadequacies in their knowledge and understanding of complex behaviour through Tsunami and earthquake damage to Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant, Japan 2012.

In spite of all such warnings why the polity, technocrats and industrial cartels are refusing to accept the simplest of the reality that human knowledge of science and technology is a follower of natural phenomenon. In safety engineering, human knowledge follows calamities,  complex behaviour of material response, component failure and accident occurrences. New chinks in our knowledge of plant safety, design criterion and failure analysis will keep on emerging with each new accident which will again be plugged with revised stringent measures. This process of evolution of safety concepts is acceptable in all walks of life and in all technologies but no body or no nation on this globe has the right to make large populations sit on a catastrophic bomb for their lure of power, money and looking after the interests of cartel they represent.

The Irony of Probability

Many a times general public is fed on probability figures of a catastrophic accident in a nuclear power plant.The accidental release of radioactivity as a result of reactor accident, terrorist attack or as a consequence of some natural disaster can be catastrophic. The scientists and technocrats would like to say that chances of such an occurrence are 1 in a billion or a trillion but can they deny that such an occurrence could as well be the 1st one and the balance of (1 trillion - 1) occurrences can be catastrophe free. 

Some glowing examples of this probability meaning out of known occurrences are given below.

• The Space Shuttle Columbia disaster occurred on February 1, 2003. When the flight was Okayed the probability of accident was similar to one described above but the accident and occurrence is there before the world.
• Heard from one of the top nuclear engineering expert of India that the probability of a full blown nuclear accident is as low as somebody getting killed in a road accident.

Such accidents involve one or a few persons at a time whereas nuclear blow out is affecting millions of people, land areas as big as mid sized countries are destroyed for ever as brought out in  Potential Accident Consequences above.

Those selling and buying nuclear energy should understand that their criminal motivation shall not be pardoned by future generations.