Thursday, September 19, 2013

NUCLEAR LIABILITY DILUTION : IS INDIA'S RULING POLITY A BUNCH OF FOOLS OR A DISHONEST BUNCH WEDDED TO ITS OWN CAUSE AND ASPIRATIONS

The recent news of India further diluting the as it is insufficient and meaningless liability clause has come as a shocker to all the well meaning citizenry of this country. The basic  idea of meeting the energy security of any country in the 21st century through nuclear route is an idea which is near obsolescence and totally out of sync with the latest concepts. The Indian government at the time of declaring nuclear power as the only viable option for country's energy security committed an act of great folly. The coming generations will not forgive these leaders on two counts, firstly giving in to nuclear power generation when nuclear fuels are a curse on humanity and secondly denying India the god sent opportunity to become global leader through total reliance and super thrust on renewable energy.
As it is every developed country is shunning the nuclear energy option, those who have no stake in nuclear energy technologies do so openly and those who are the sellers of this technology do so clandestinely. It is no secret that USA has not added or replaced even an iota of nuclear power on its soil during the last thirty years because it is said that no nuclear power generation firm can exist if liability clause is put in use with a meaningful perspective.The Indian polity must explain the reasons to go in for nuclear power, the worst available option for energy security and all the more now when they are committing national hara kiri by diluting the liability clause in favour of US firms.

Wednesday, September 18, 2013

FIVE DEFICITS : THE BANE OF INDIAN ECONOMY AND GROWTH STORY


The potential of Indian growth story and chance of India to become a global economic superpower has been a hot topic with the economists and analysts all over this globe. The forty year opportunity window is at India's doorsteps just waiting to be grabbed for fulfilling the dreams and aspirations of 1 billion plus Indians. This great opportunity window exists simply on the back of huge demographic advantage of cheap skilled manpower both in the technical and managerial cadres and the world economies looking for new economic order in the face of diminishing old order energy resources and global warming associated with them.
The demographic advantage of today will become a major disadvantage after a few decades when the bulk of the population becomes old. After all no sanity can deny the fact that ultimately for about 35-40 years of productive life, the same individual is going to be a burden on the national resources for next 25-30 years. The number of aged individuals and non productive years of these aged individuals will keep on increasing as a nation marches on road to prosperity. The problems of developed and industrialized economies mainly emanated from this crude reality of life. Whereas these countries fully utilized the opportunity window that came their way and grew old after becoming rich, it looks quite likely that India may grow old before becoming rich and prosperous unless and until some wisdom prevails on Indian polity and they start addressing the five deficits, the bane of Indian economy and growth story at the earliest in a sincere and earnest manner. If the polity keeps harping on their  vote bank politics with subsidies, doles and freebies  for another decade or so, India would have missed this golden opportunity and all because the nation could not produce leaders who could keep their baser instincts of lust for power and money away while serving/governing the nation.
No doubt India has complete wherewith all to make use of this god sent opportunity to erase poverty, become prosperous and be an economic superpower. But till such time the challenges before India, the potential economic superpower of 21st century are dealt with in an effective manner, nothing worthwhile is going to be achieved. Intelligentsia from all spheres like politics, economics technology etc. talks about the growth drivers of next generation, namely, the corruption mitigation and good governance, infrastructure and human resource development and Energy security but precious little has been done or achieved in any of them during the last decade or so. The following deficits are the biggest impediments to the growth of Indian economy.
  • CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT :
  • FISCAL DEFICIT
  • COMMONSENSE DEFICIT
  • GOVERNANCE & POLICY DEFICIT
  • TRUST DEFICIT
The first two deficits namely the current account deficit and fiscal deficit are the sole measures of economic health of a nation. Let nobody forget that they are the manifestations of the governance and policy deficit, trust deficit and commonsense deficit which has engulfed Indian rulers. No amount of patchwork solutions through monetary policy and (Reserve Bank of India) RBI actions can provide lasting solutions and are in fact disastrous in the long run as seen in the case of trying to fight inflation through monetary policy. At best these actions can give the rulers some breathing time.
Commonsense Deficit is a crucial factor in marring the destiny of a nation and it has been proved time and again that redistribution of national wealth is not the answer to poverty among the masses of India. As no army can be effective and efficient with a low  tooth ( combat soldiers ) to tail ( support and supply manpower ) ratio, no economy can grow and prosper with a low productive to consumption fund ratio. The polity has to learn to control their baser instincts of vote bank politics and bring in austerity in spending on all subsidies, doles, freebies and government expenditure. The policies and directions of government spending have to concentrate on the force multiplier principle of compounding to reap the benefits for positive gains and not allow it to work for the detriment of economy. Oil pricing policies are a typical case in point. The Indian government decided not to increase the prices of petrol,diesel,cooking gas and kerosene for a very long period just to keep the vote banks happy, even though the international prices were soaring and the rupee was weakening at a fast pace.They even forgot that oil economics could be a thorn in Indian growth story and the resulting impact on fiscal deficit, current account deficit and the national economy is there for all to see. Similarly, the recent food security bill with constant prices to the beneficiary will make the exchequer poorer by Rs 15000 crores every year at an inflation of 10% and will have value reductive effect on the economy.
Governance and Policy Deficit: The Indian government has all these years harping upon the fact that compulsions of coalition government and global economies not being in good shape were responsible for bad state of economy, whereas the basic fact is that the country suffered badly as a result of governance and policy deficit prevailing in the country.It is sad that decisions that were supposed to be good for the country in the eyes of ruling polity were also kept pending  to realize there full impact on the vote bank politics during the ensuing elections in 2014. Now all of a sudden, after destroying the economy for a number of years, lot many legislations and policy measures are seeing the light of the day, the compulsions of coalition politics and tottering global economies not withstanding. In fact during the last month alone projects worth approximately 4.00 lakh crores in infrastructure sector alone have been cleared simply demonstrating 'where there is a will, there is a way'.
Trust Deficit: The biggest negative for the government of the day is the syndrome of trust deficit it has acquired by its actions, deeds and a non coherent approach so much so that the various state governments have no faith its intentions. No body seems to be willing to invest in India, be it the Indian or foreign entrepreneurs/investors. The government seems to be majorly banking on (Foreign Direct Investment) FDI and (Foreign Institutional Investors) FII's for all its economic woes including CAD and propping up economy but the naked truth about FDI is something not very comforting because of huge trust deficit it has built for itself over the years. 




Wednesday, September 4, 2013

WHO WILL STEM THIS ROT???

The Indian national elections to the 16th Lok Sabha are still about nine months away and all political parties are busy fooling the Indian voter and maligning each other in the murkiest of the manner. The well meaning honest Indian is witnessing  the high voltage drama going on everyday wherein the biggest howlers disguised as spokespersons are at their worst best and keep the nation amused by their daily quota of prowess of gift of the gab with half lies and no truth whatsoever. The hapless common man is all the more helpless as he fully knows that he has no choice of an honest government, and with the choices available his aspirations will just meet the fate 'out of the frying pan into the fire'. All such people would like to vote for the best man but sadly enough either this best man is not a candidate or is not allowed to be a candidate by the system of goons and buffoons ruling/ruining India.
The country which boasts of a galaxy of economists and a committed  polity ( committed to what? Your guess is as good as mine ) is passing through one of the worst economic crisis and the leaders of the advanced western countries of our globe are thoroughly enjoying the hara kiri acts of the Indian government towards destroying the Indian dream and chance to become world leaders. Isn't it really ironic that instead of present advanced countries and economic superpowers working for maintaining their coveted supremacy and global leadership, it is the Indian polity that is helping them all out by not doing anything to meet the challenges before India, the potential superpower of the 21st century. 
The need of the hour is to have somebody who could say with Charles de Gaulle, "In politics it is necessary either to betray one's country or the electorate. I prefer to betray the electorate". It is a pity that political masters of India betray both, the country as well as electorate just to be in power by all kind of foul means. How one wishes that Indian polity too has some statesmen in its ranks, for 
Statesmen think of next generation and create opportunities, Leaders Seize opportunities that come their way, while Politicians think of next elections and fritter away these opportunities and dirty politicians who are the core of Indian polity simply mess up everything and this is what separates wise men from men, men from boys and boys from impudent louts in the realm of changing fate of a nation.

    Saturday, August 31, 2013

    INDIAN REFORMS OR SHORT CUT TO DISASTER

    Indian population of one billion plus had seen high hopes of an end to their woes and miseries in the hands of the trio of highly acclaimed economists but all their hopes and aspirations seem to have bitten the dust because they have miserably failed to put their knowledge to its best use. The polity has all along been thriving on hollow promises, high sounding slogans and true to its basic baser instinct of fooling citizenry at large and lust for power, UPA II has worked hard to manipulate the two path breaking reforms (in their words), namely the food security bill and the land acquisition bill.
    It is not that the Indian government on the whole and these three musketeers in particular do not understand the total implications of their actions on the health of the economy and deterioration of the psyche of human resource of India. But their lust of power pushes them to the dictum of everything is fair in love and war, the war to grab power and dictates them to resort to anything and everything that can fetch votes, not withstanding its negative impact on the nation.
    It is really sad that total Indian polity has failed to take the food security bill in the correct perspective and all politicians in the country wanted to excel each other in blowing away public exchequer in the most undesirable and inefficient manner. They fail to realize that the country's resources are limited but these vote banks are quite capable of blackmailing the polity into submission knowing its need to ensure votes for its mere existence.
    Much has been said about land acquisition bill and that it will have far reaching effect on the fortune of our farmers. A few points any learned politician of the country will like to answer.
    • In next five years how much of land from how many farmers/ farming families is likely to be acquired? May be a couple of thousand of farmers and fooling around 200 million voters, in the same way as fooling around 300 million voters for reservations in jobs by doling out 1 lakh jobs during the last 65 years. What a great achievement ?
    • Who is going to reap the benefits of land acquisitions by government for infra projects, industry and urbanization? Is it not a fact that much before the actual land acquisition comes into play, the sharks belonging to power corridors, the kith and kin of politicians, their stooges and cronies manage to corner all land. The bill is an effort to give them the huge windfall benefits. If there was iota of sincerity in the minds of the polity, to give the real benefit to the farmer or the real landowner, some safe guard against this activity could have been incorporated, otherwise in present form, it is only an effort to maximize the gains of Vadheras and the likes of them along with the piddlings of the power corridors.
    The seemingly innocuous land acquisition bill  is an effort to multiply manifolds the illegal earnings of who's who of the power corridors and to fool the farmer at large to grab his valuable vote for the black motives of the polity. Its overall impact on the economy,  its growth and to the urbanization of the country is going to be highly negative. Land acquisition bill will push up property prices by 30% along with making land acquisition a long drawn process riddled with uncertainties. Every cloud has a silver lining and hopefully the provisions contained in the bill will be used by landowners at nuclear power plant sites to see an end to the call on nuclear power in India : our worst enemy.

    Thursday, August 29, 2013

    INDIA CALLING OR CRYING: WE ARE ALL TAINTED, WE WON'T ALLOW OUR LIFELINE TO...: United we stand, divided we fall . The Indian polity remembers this saying only when their sole life line to existence in politics i.e. co...

    Sunday, August 25, 2013

    FOOD SECURITY BILL IN CORRECT PERSPECTIVE

    Food security bill is the latest burning issue of Indian politics and seems to highlight the compulsions of the polity. There is no denying the fact that food security is the first basic big element in the chain of value addition in the earning ability of an individual, his health and India's march towards poverty alleviation. Food subsidy bill talks in terms of providing food to 50% of urban India (377 million) and 75% of rural India ( 833 million) at highly subsidised rates at a whopping cost of Rs 1,30,000 crore to the exchequer. Add to this the cost of pilferage, grain rotting and logistics inefficiencies, an estimated amount of Rs 60,000 -70,000 crore. A cost of about Rs 2,00,000 crore for meeting the basic food requirements of 800 million of Indian citizens after 66 years of rule by politicians totally dedicated to the cause of the common man. A matter to be proud of ???? Still let the country grant them credit for at least imbibing the motto 'BETTER LATE THAN NEVER'. ( Excerpts from http://veekay-indiandreamsvsreality.blogspot.in/2013/08/wrong-economics-or-wrong-intentions.html )
    There are a few basic questions that any well meaning citizen of this country fails to understand.
    • The timing of this bonanza of dole/freebie : India has been governed by this very polity for the last sixty years plus ( In fact more than 75% have been there for 25 years or more and in many cases  the power has been passed into the hands of 2nd and 3rd generation ) and all these years, election after election the common man has been misled/fooled into believing that his woes and miseries have been reduced by successive governments responsive to all their causes including food, shelter and clothing and their utmost concern for their upliftment. Today all of a sudden, 833 million people of the country need subsidized food for their basic existence and that too in the 10th year of rule of Congress and its allies. Add to this the fact that Indian economy is almost at its nadir and is fighting the menace of inflation coupled with high fiscal and current account deficits along with rupee devaluation. Is this the right time to indulge into an activity of providing additional 2 lakh crore to 3 lakh crore subsidy. But alas, this has got to be done now and now alone because this is perhaps the last straw for the sinking ship of this Indian government  which does not have any worthwhile achievement to boast of and is totally mired in corruption scams, Even the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) feels that Food security bill will eat into India's finances but the government instead of showing some sincerity and honesty towards the national interest is simply bent upon looking for its own future and is playing vote bank politics.
    • Why there has been a shift from the lofty principle of food for work to food for right to exist/life. The Indian citizenry to the Indian polity is like ants feeding wheat flour to whom by  Indian polity  is a path towards their Nirvana ( In this case a ticket to electoral victory and another chance to suck the country for their own luxuries and benefits ).
    So much for the intentions behind this so called noble desire to serve the humanity. To an independent observer the following gaps/ lacunae very smartly left uncovered  by the policy makers are big irritants and will take the nation and its economy to dogs in the long run.
    • There is no mention of the fact or any provision in the act about the period for which the provisions of the act will be applicable. Similarly, as the years roll by and with the likely growth of GDP, will there be any change in the quantum of subsidy and the number of beneficiaries. In a country like India where the only obsession of polity is to play to the gallery of its vote bank and coming to power by fair means or foul, making such provisions has little value as we have seen in the case of reservation policy and earlier subsidies. After all India has been ruined by a plethora of subsidies which could not even be rationalized leave alone doing away with them.
    • Add to this the urge of the governments to play to the agriculturist vote banks and lobbies as also the fact that the prices of food grains will keep on going up courtesy inflation and costs of inputs, food bill subsidy will keep on growing.
    While any sane person will not and should not grudge providing food security to the poor. It is well known that a healthy mind grows in a healthy body.  Healthy body and healthy mind are the two basic prerequisites of the human resource development which is one of the major next gen growth engine of the Indian economy. But food security bill must be taken up in the right earnest with an eye only on the future of India. Any digression from this to make it a ploy for vote bank politics now or in future will kill all chances of India becoming an economic superpower through unmanageable budgetary deficits. The choice is before Indian polity. Rise to the occasion for the sake of country and your beloved masses. For this threshold moment leave your baser instincts and lust for power in the interest of the nation otherwise be a mute witness to the reality of Is India progressing or regressing and Indian citizenry will never forgive you for having failed them in their long term aspirations.

    Sunday, August 18, 2013

    WRONG ECONOMICS OR WRONG INTENTIONS

    Pseudo economics, artificial actions and on all policy fronts with the sole consideration of vote bank politics have pushed India into a situation which is certainly not the envy of even the best of the supporters of the present government of India. It is only the modern day equivalents of historical court jesters and those excelling in the art of boot licking and sycophancy of the power corridors to succeed in their own dubious self interests who are all praise for the government actions which have failed to produce any positive results  on inflation front, the mother of all problems related to the economic health of the nation and the resulting rupee devaluation and a dwindling economy. Common sense says that the buying power of the rupee in the Indian market directly has a strong bearing on its buying power in the international market and yet strangely the only action taken by government of India is tightening of monetary policy through reserve bank without much effect on the inflation front but significant deleterious effects on the Indian economy. The real challenges before India the potential superpower of 21st century seem to have gone in the background and the Indian economy has been caught in the vicious cycle of slowing growth, fiscal deficit and current account deficit. All actions by the hi fi economists of the country seem to be hitting a wall perhaps because no concerted and sincere effort is being made.
    Economics, governance and inflation are so much interlinked that any slackness in economics or governance will not allow inflation to come down to acceptable limits till such time the benefits of NREGA and increase of per capita income through increase in GDP are nullified by the increase in unemployment and dwindling growth rates of GDP. Similarly, Fiscal deficit and current account deficit do temporarily come down with decrease in international commodity prices of gold, crude etc and will go up as the commodity prices rise again. Unless and until the oil economics is viewed and managed in totality, oil economics will be the eternal bane of Indian economy and India's growth story. On the gold front also, Indian rulers are conveniently and merrily forgetting the basic fact that it is the most convenient method of absorbing black money. Increasing import duty can be a short term deterrent for some but in the long run the demand for yellow metal will not reduce and it will give incentive to more black money generation through smuggling route.
    Why is it that every measure to take care of the woes of the common citizen has to be detrimental to the country? The answer is pretty simple, all actions are being taken by keeping  the interests of nation and its poor millions in the background and the  baser political/human urges to gain control over vote banks at the forefront. Food subsidy bill is a representative case in point.There is no denying the fact that food security is the first basic big element in the chain of value addition in the earning ability of an individual, his health and India's march towards poverty alleviation. Food subsidy bill talks in terms of providing food to 50% of urban India (377 million) and 75% of rural India ( 833 million) at highly subsidised rates at a whopping cost of Rs 1,30,000 crore to the exchequer. Add to this the cost of pilferage, grain rotting and logistics inefficiencies, an estimated amount of Rs 60,000 -70,000 crore. A cost of about Rs 2,00,000 crore for meeting the basic food requirements of 800 million of Indian citizens after 66 years of rule by politicians totally dedicated to the cause of the common man. A matter to be proud of ???? Still let the country grant them credit for at least imbibing the motto 'BETTER LATE THAN NEVER'. But what is the compulsion of 
    • Giving it as a dole for the empty stomach, a liability of human body and not barter it against the output of two working hands which are the biggest asset of every human being. Why can't the polity ensure a monthly income of Rs 7000 for a household of five persons ( 35 days wages split between 2 adults ) or Rs 47 per day per head through a payment against work. The expenditure can be met by clubbing  together money spent on all the doles, freebies and the allied wastage, pilferage and administrative costs. Imagine the miracle of additional 300 (working days) X 100 million (working hands) available man days in a year, a figure even all the European nations combined together cannot dream of.
    • Not adopting a methodology that would be most cost effective and least contributor to mismanagement and corrupt practices that have been the bane of majority of government programs and actions.
    Why can't these brilliant men at the top think of achieving food security, work security and health security all by a single action of good governance and forgetting subsidies. Perhaps the polity lacks the courage and will to tell their vote banks that they are getting everything as compensation for their labour and work. Or may be the vote bank tells them that payment against work is acceptable from polity that deserves to rule and not from polity which relies only on corruption and corrupt practices for ruling the country.

    THE DEGRADED POLITY OF INDIA

     Who said that bastardly thought process was the sole proprietorship of biological bastards. It comes in naturally and automatically once yo...