India And Coronavirus Catastrophe

Two months have passed after the lock down as a result of Corona Virus (Covid 19). On one hand the political agenda has given birth to a debate on whether India should have gone ahead with lock down or not? On the other hand questions are being raised on the timing and preparedness required before putting the nation under lock down. Both these questions have a common answer in the fact that catastrophes and calamities are not planned activities and hence the response actions and planning will go hand in glove with each other and is in essence a trade-off between economy, loss of life, preparedness in both logistics and medical facilities and the speed of onset of the calamity in all kind of likely scenarios emanating from the nation’s understanding and response to the problem.

        All analysis of the problem, be it by Polity and Political analysts, Economists, Journalists, Industrialists and Intelligentsia has been done keeping in view one’s own self interest, hidden agenda and selfish motivations and fails to give a rational and unbiased assessment to a normal citizen.

       It is a well known that corona virus infected patients grow rapidly and exponentially. In the light of unfortunate fact that neither a cure nor a vaccine is available to mankind at this juncture, the only plausible solution at this is to slow down the growth chain and break it if possible, much like a nuclear reaction is controlled in an atomic power plant by removing/absorbing a large a large number of neutrons from the chain fission reaction, thus avoiding the catastrophe of a nuclear bomb explosion.This controlling/ breaking down the chain required an imposition of a complete lock down on all kind of activity along with building up an infrastructure to help fight and control Corona virus on a war footing. The results of any delay and let up would have been as catastrophic as that of a nuclear explosion. While the nuclear explosion limits itself to a maximum radius of 100 Kms or so, Corona misfortune would have been on the national scale.
       The trade off available was very simple. A maximum of Rs. 15 to 20 lakh crore of GDP loss coupled with a lot of misery and sufferings to the poor masses or accepting  a potential of a couple of lakh deaths and a couple of million covid-19 patients with the level of infrastructure created today so painstakingly in the last 2 months and barely enough for maximum 2 lakh patients. The war would have neither been won nor finished after this. But I can venture out to say if there was no lock down from March, the exponential growth of corona virus patients and its collateral damage effects on industry, commerce and services because of randomly falling sick of key workers, closing and sanitizing of premises, its demoralizing effect on business and workforce would have definitely led to an even greater exodus of workers ( Unplanned equally if not more ). And a completely haywire and directionless nation would have suffered many many times more.In case the nation went in for a lock down after giving a fortnight of preparation time as many have been professing, a sudden explosion of corona virus cases would have been simply unmanageable as has been seen in many advanced, educated, law abiding and prosperous nations. 

       Needless to emphasize that the social distancing, use of masks, soap and sanitizer, quarantine etc. are all containment efforts aiming at minimizing the loss and certainly not means of finding an end to the corona virus. The  finding out of a vaccine and achieving herd immunity can give a lot of respite and comfort to the global citizenry but in true sense the war shall be deemed to have won only after the humanity finds a cure to the disease..

INDIAN GROWTH STORY: THE WAY AHEAD ---- PART II

After having taken care of all fakes and duplicates in the population nos., voter list, list of all kind of state and central beneficiaries, property, gold and other asset holders, tax payers and tax evaders, the nation should look towards a remedy to the following governance issues.

• Discretion: Discretion is the biggest strength of governance if utilized with honesty and sincerity. But as the Indian system has been taken over by Corruption Empowered Cabal , ( the lick my boot/ scratch my back variety ) and where discretion is either used to extract money from all helpless and compelled citizenry or incur favours on one's cronies, stooges, relatives, masters and fellow travellers. It is time that Indian governance chooses to live without this word till such time we understand the real meaning of honesty, sincerity and character.
• Reinforcement of Corruption Control Machinery of States: The Indian states combined together have control over a yearly budget which is at least 1.5 times the Central budget. But sadly the central government can talk of CBI and ED originally set up to investigate bribery and governmental corruption ( Its efficacy and intent has always been in question in our corruption mired society ). As far as the states are concerned, they are the hot beds of corruption and a safe and sound source of illegal earning for polity of all hues and colours and the saddest part is that they are never in the eye of the storm in this great nation of Honest Politicians, Super Honest Intelligentsia, Beyond Doubt Journalists and Media. Hope we soon have somebody to plug the backside of this golden egg laying hen.
• Reinforcement of  Law Enforcing, Investigating Agencies and Judiciary: India Spends Only 0.08% Of GDP On Judiciary, Crippling Reforms. As of 2018, the judicial system was functioning with a lower than sanctioned number of judges, the report stated. While judicial vacancies against sanctioned posts stood at 23.25% at all tiers, the report pointed out that in 2016-17, high courts had a judge vacancy of 42% and subordinate courts of 23%.Police vacancies run at about 22% of sanctioned numbers, according to the Bureau of Police Research and Development (BPR&D) report published in January 2017. The most acute vacancies were reported in Uttar Pradesh--at 53% for the constabulary and 63% for officers (2017). Similarly, nearly one-third of all prison posts remain unfilled across the country. Uttarakhand and Jharkhand had the most poorly staffed jails. Uttarakhand, for instance, recorded the highest vacancies among cadre staff, at 72% (2016). As of 2019, only 79% of the district legal service authorities had full-time secretaries to manage the delivery of legal-aid.             These poor numbers are not a sheer coincidence but are a direct result of birth and rise of the corruption empowered cabal . An increase of Rs 85,000 Crore out of a total combined budget of  67 lakh Crore ( Both Centre and States ) is not going to play havoc with the Indian economy but it will be a big asset in controlling corruption and black money, increasing the happiness quotient of general masses. Of course it will be like striking lightening on all members of corruption empowered cabal.
• Human Resource Development: The role of human resource development : the next  gen growth engine has been talked about extensively during the last two decades. Respective governments have been boasting of the great work done in the field of education and human resource development. But what is the reality. Indian Reality is that we have a Rudderless Education system.                                                                                                                                                   Our education system produces about 3 million graduates ( B.A.'s ) , about 1 million technical graduates, 0.18 million MBA's, 0.27 million polytechnic diplomas and 0.75 million ITI's. Out of all these so called educated and qualified class about 80% are simply unemployable. Instead of contributing towards India's progress, they are just a drain on the system as a lot of government money is spent on these colleges and institutes. These people invariably find jobs in the government sector wherein utter discretion is used in the name of  'Interview' and a lot of money changes hands in the form of bribe.                                                                                                                                                In the Skilled manpower segment which is the essence of progress of productivity of a country the situation is all the more worse. Firstly the quality and standard of skilled labour and supervisors is simply not up to the mark. Secondly we have a very distorted pyramid structure when technical manpower is in question. Imagine for 1 million engineering graduate pass outs per annum, we produce only 0.27 million diploma holders and 0.75 million ITI's. On the top of it we have about 200 million unskilled workers who just have two hands as their competence. There is an urgent need to convert these hands into Semi Skilled ones or Blue Collar Manpower  which includes Plumbers, Masons, Carpenters, Electricians, Drivers and workers in leather, jewellery and textile industry to name only a few. It is only in India that in these categories we have only 2% of manpower with any formal vocational training. In Industrially advanced countries more than 90% workers have proper vocational training which helps increasing the productivity and quality of produce and earnings of the individual.                                                                        This is for white collar and blue collar manpower. The concept of pink collar manpower is yet to take off. This is a very specialised cadre and the about 30% of manpower has to be absorbed in nursing, secretarial practices, beauticians and all kinds of  service industry.          Needless to say that we as a nation have to create ways and means to wean people away from villages and agriculture,  to have more and more people in the tax net as also in the organised sector.

The need of the hour is to have somebody who could say with Charles de Gaulle, "In politics it is necessary either to betray one's country or the electorate. I prefer to betray the electorate". It is a pity that political masters of India betray both, the country as well as electorate just to be in power by all kind of foul means. How one wishes that Indian polity too has some statesmen in its ranks, for 
Statesmen think of next generation and create opportunities, Leaders Seize opportunities that come their way, while Politicians think of next elections and fritter away these opportunities and dirty politicians who are the core of Indian polity simply mess up everything and this is what separates wise men from men, men from boys and boys from impudent louts in the realm of changing fate of a nation.

INDIAN GROWTH STORY: THE WAY AHEAD ---- PART I

The first two decades of independent India should have given the country a sound agricultural footing, the basic infrastructure, a pool of scientific, technical and managerial personnel, a fairly good human resource of blue, white and pink collared workers and adequate financial resources. India was doing reasonably well on all counts up to about 1967 but then we were stuck by the malaise called corruption empowered cabal . Theoretically, every Tom, Dick and Harry of Indian polity and intelligentsia would describe the next gen growth engines of Indian Economy, namely, Infrastructure and Human Resource Development - Next Gen Growth Engines Of Indian Economy, Indian Energy Security - the next gen growth engine, Corruption Mitigation and Good Governance - The Biggest Growth Engines for Indian Economy .But  THE BIRTH AND RISE OF CORRUPTION EMPOWERED CABAL was so fast and overwhelming that the minuscule number of honest and uncompromising individuals of India want to forget these four decades as a bad dream.

During this period, one prime minister remarked that corruption was a universal phenomenon and India and Indians should learn to live with this. Another prime minister remarked that out of 1 Rupee given as a welfare measure by the government only 15 paise reaches the beneficiary. Needless to emphasize that the rest is gobbled by this cabal.Many of this cabal will point out the increase in GDP and per capita income during this period but will not tell you that India could have been more than a conservative 10 trillion Dollar economy instead of 1 or 1.5 trillion.

We have lost about 10 years of the great opportunity window that came our way in the form of energy security disruption and disruption in vehicle industry coupled with the great demographic dividend we possess today, to become prosperous. What ever is gone is gone. We still have 2/3 rd of the opportunity window available to make amends.  Ideally no nation  should ever forget the following lines which are passed down the line generation after generation in the text books of wisdom.

Good Economics and Good Governance is Ideal; 

Bad Economics and Good Governance is A Compromise;

 

Bad Economics and Bad Governance is A Disaster; 

Good politics, bad economics and bad governance is A Catastrophe.

We as a nation have to strive to raise ourselves from the level of Good politics, bad economics and bad governance to the level of Good Economics and Good Governance. With Aadhaar and computerization nothing is impossible in the realm of corruption mitigation and good governance, if the national will is there. 

• Start with the Census of India. Ensure no duplicates, no fakes.
• No fakes and duplicates in the population of India and its citizens.
• No fakes and duplicates in voter lists - Aadhaar linked
• No fakes and duplicates in PAN Cards -  Aadhaar linked
• No fakes and duplicates in Bank Accounts - Aadhaar linked
• No fakes and duplicates in ration card holders - Aadhaar linked
• No fakes and duplicates in other doles and subsidies - Aadhaar linked
• Linking of all real estate with Aadhaar in case of individual property owners 
• Linking of all real estate with some unique no  in case property owned by non individual
• Linking of all other Asset Classes like gold, equities with Aadhaar 

The corruption empowered cabal entrenched in polity of all hues, bureaucracy, judiciary, media, businesses, self employed persons and the so called intelligentsia is sparing no effort in delaying the process of computerization and linking of Aadhaar to all Indian human beings, all subsidies and payments  these guys receive from all government and non government entities, all their assets movable and immovable etc., etc.. Privacy and no other objection to these measures should come in the way because nation has the right to know whether any list contains fake, duplicate or names of dead persons. And it is the prime responsibility of all organs of the government i.e. legislature, bureaucracy and judiciary to curb and mitigate all practices that are contributor to theft and evasion of taxes, corruption/bribery, black money generation.

THE BIRTH AND RISE OF CORRUPTION EMPOWERED CABAL IN INDIA

In 1947 when India got independence, Indian polity and bureaucracy were by and large an honest and God fearing community. There could be some biases, likings, putting in a good word for some favour but nothing was ever done in exchange of money. Bribery and corruption were almost a taboo in the society. Tax compliance was an honour. With the passage of years, bribery, corruption, tax evasion all became accepted norms in the society and those who stayed away from these activities were ridiculed for not being worldly wise and daring. 

How did it start? Why did it start? The shift from pre independence era poltician's mindset of a servant of people to the mindset of being the ruler/king hardly took two decades. Once this rot set in, the necessity of having faithful servants in all positions arose. The lust of power immediately brought in the lust for money, riches and a desire for all baser elements of life.  The desire for power coupled with the desire for riches pushed the Indian politicians to the real long established definition of poltics. "It has been said that politics is the second oldest profession. I have learned that it bears a striking resemblance to the first". These are the words of Ronald Reagan, the Ex US President and he couldn't have been more apt and correct, particularly when you see present day breed of the Indian Politicians.

Nobody can taste the fruits of  power and riches all alone, whatever may be the mode of governance. Kings/Dictators had their own faithful and powerful men in key positions, left regimes manage through party cadres and in a multi party democracy the leader has to share the spoils with a much larger group and to have them faithfully glued  to your side must close the eyes of the system so that they prosper. That propels the lick my boot, scratch my back model in reality. The resulted in the birth of corruption empowered cabal which encompasses the length and breadth of all walks of life , which grew exponentially in the next four decades, the colour of ruling polity being of no consequence.During these years no leader, no  politician , no intelligentsia, no bureaucracy, no judiciary, no media/ journalist, in fact nobody of any consequence from amongst 'The Haves of Indian Society' took cognizance of this malaise. In fact they are all guilty of enjoying the fruits of the birth and rise of corruption empowered cabal and are solely responsible for delaying the INDIAN CHANCE TO BECOME AN ECONOMIC SUPERPOWER They failed the nation in sorting out the CHALLENGES BEFORE INDIA , THE POTENTIAL ECONOMIC SUPERPOWER OF THE 21st CENTURY . 
The opportunity windows are a once in lifetime phenomenon in the history of a nation and India is in the midst of this window. Western European countries, Japan and China became prosperous before getting old. Let us resolve that we will not let the present corruption empowered ecosystem thrust upon us by this cabal deny us the prosperity/ happiness that can be ours if we utilize this opportunity judiciously. Let us not forget that Statesmen think of next generation and create opportunities, Leaders Seize opportunities that come their way, while Politicians think of next elections and fritter away these opportunities and dirty politicians simply mess up everything and this is what separates wise men from men, men from boys and boys from impudent louts in the realm of changing fate of a nation.

We as a nation have our tasks and priorities well defined and well cut. Let us fight for the end of this cabal and not fritter away our date with destiny which is just a decade away.